For his work to understand why climate change leads to negative security consequences in some places and not others, Joshua W. Busby, professor of public affairs at the University of Texas at Austin, will receive the 2026 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order. Busby presented these ideas in his book, “States and Nature: The Effects of Climate Change on Security.”
In the book, Busby explains how the combination of state capacity, political exclusion and international assistance determine the degree to which the impacts of climate change affect security for a country’s citizens.
“The effects of pollution from burning fossil fuels have fundamentally altered our climate and will get worse until we move to cleaner energy,” Busby said. “Even as we transition away from fossil fuels, we have to prepare for climate impacts, some of which are inevitable at this point.
“Countries with weak government capacity, where political institutions exclude some people from power and where foreign assistance is blocked or delivered to some groups and not others are likely to have the worst outcomes, including humanitarian emergencies and violent conflict,” he said.
“But the hopeful story of my book is that the worst consequences of climate change are not inevitable. Governments, even very poor ones, can take steps to protect their populations from climate harms and prevent large-scale loss of life from exposure to climate-related extreme weather, including cyclones and droughts. With a little bit of outside help, governments have been able to reduce their vulnerability to climate disasters and concerted action can prevent climate shocks from escalating to violence.”
Charles E. Ziegler, University of Louisville professor of political science, University Scholar and director of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, said Busby’s book examines the crucial global governance topic of confronting the negative implications of climate change in the realm of security.
“Busby’s carefully conducted case studies allow for comparison of neighboring states that are confronted with similar climate hazards, yet experience very different outcomes,” Ziegler said. “The policy implications for confronting the security costs of climate change are clear and particularly timely given controversy about how to deal with the global climate crisis.”
The Grawemeyer Award for World Order has been given annually since 1988.
“I am thrilled and humbled to have the book recognized this way and to join the august company of previous winners of this award,” Busby said.
Busby will visit Louisville in April 2026 to give a free talk on his winning ideas and accept his award.
About the Grawemeyer Awards
Each year the Grawemeyer Awards honor the power of creative ideas to improve our culture via music composition, world order, education, religion and psychology. Business executive and philanthropist H. Charles Grawemeyer established the awards in 1984 at the University of Louisville.
Academics and community members choose among nominees from around the world to ensure that each winning idea is both innovative and accessible. The University of Louisville and Louisville Presbyterian Theological Seminary announce the winners in December and present the awards at a ceremony the following April. The five award winners receive $100,000 each, which they may use, if they choose, to develop and accelerate the spread of their powerful ideas. Learn more at grawemeyer.org.
